https://negativeev.com We simulate every game thousands of times and check what the sportsbooks are charging for it. Most bets are worse than they look. en-us NegativeEV We simulate every game thousands of times and check what the sportsbooks are charging for it. Most bets are worse than they look. false NegativeEV hello@negativeev.com The most-bet home run prop on the Aug 9 MLB board, checked against 5,000 play-by-play simulations. The +263 price implies 27.5%; the simulations say 20.5%. Negative EV at -26%, a play only at +388 or longer. A slate preview for Sunday's games. Narration is synthetic (text-to-speech from the written read); the analysis is the simulator's. More at negativeev.com The most-bet home run prop on the Aug 9 MLB board, checked against 5,000 play-by-play simulations. The +263 price implies 27.5%; the simulations say 20.5%. Negative EV at -26%, a play only at +388 or longer. A slate preview for Sunday's games. Narration is synthetic (text-to-speech from the written read); the analysis is the simulator's. More at negativeev.com Sun, 09 Aug 2026 16:22:08 +0000 2026-08-09-chalk 145 false Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run, Toronto at Philadelphia, is the chalkiest bet on the August 8 MLB board, and it is the one we take apart before first pitch. The price is +231, which asks for a home run 30.2% of the time. Our simulator plays the game out 5,000 times and has him going deep 27.1% of the time. That is Negative EV at -10%. It would take +269 to break even. Then the part that is actually interesting, which is what we could not find. Nothing that might drag his number down cleared its own noise floor, so the things holding it up are the whole story: his own career profile, worth about 8.8 points, his season form at 3.4, and Max Scherzer's season form at 2.9. Jesse: "Unfortunately, not much. A few items surfaced in our neutralizations of this matchup, but none really cleared the noise floor. So this is most likely a case of, he's just overpriced." Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run, Toronto at Philadelphia, is the chalkiest bet on the August 8 MLB board, and it is the one we take apart before first pitch. The price is +231, which asks for a home run 30.2% of the time. Our simulator plays the game out 5,000 times and has him going deep 27.1% of the time. That is Negative EV at -10%. It would take +269 to break even. Then the part that is actually interesting, which is what we could not find. Nothing that might drag his number down cleared its own noise floor, so the things holding it up are the whole story: his own career profile, worth about 8.8 points, his season form at 3.4, and Max Scherzer's season form at 2.9. Jesse: "Unfortunately, not much. A few items surfaced in our neutralizations of this matchup, but none really cleared the noise floor. So this is most likely a case of, he's just overpriced." Sat, 08 Aug 2026 18:29:49 +0000 2026-08-08-chalk 140 false Our first Positive EV chalk of the day. Shohei Ohtani, anytime home run, +276. Why the sims like it, and why that still does not make it a lock. Our first Positive EV chalk of the day. Shohei Ohtani, anytime home run, +276. Why the sims like it, and why that still does not make it a lock. Fri, 07 Aug 2026 20:32:33 +0000 2026-08-07-chalk 217 false Is he a good play? Is he a bad play? FIND OUT. Is he a good play? Is he a bad play? FIND OUT. Thu, 06 Aug 2026 19:20:37 +0000 2026-08-06-chalk 302 false Nine books priced Kyle Schwarber to homer at +175, which implies 36.4%. Five thousand pitch-by-pitch replays of the game said 31.6%, making it a -13.2% bet that would need +217 to break even. Recorded before first pitch. Nine books priced Kyle Schwarber to homer at +175, which implies 36.4%. Five thousand pitch-by-pitch replays of the game said 31.6%, making it a -13.2% bet that would need +217 to break even. Recorded before first pitch. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 18:40:35 +0000 2026-08-05-chalk 229 false